Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next ...

Question

Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you watch a TV news report, it includes a story about a plane crash.

Accepted Answer

Welcome back, everyone. Estimate the probability that you will come across a report about a volcanic eruption during your next visit to a news website. A says 0.58, B 0.75, C 0.35, and D 0.01. So first of all, let's understand that we're trying to solve this problem based on subjective judgment. We're not given any data, right? We're considering volcanic eruptions and we have to understand that these are really rare events. We don't expect volcanic eruptions to be observed every day or every week, right? So if we consider days out of 7 days, we definitely expect. Fewer reports than one about volcanic eruptions, right? So the probability of a volcanic eruption, let's call that event A, is less than 1/17. 1/7 is approximately 0.14, right? So now looking at the answer choices A says 0.58. This means that every second visit or more actually, right, because it's more than 0.5. Is led by a report about a volcanic eruption, and that's definitely false. B 0.75 is even greater, right? So we can exclude that. C 0.35, which is approximately 1/3, is also unlikely, right? Because 13 is greater than 1/7. Which leaves us with D, which is 0.01. Now, 0.01 is definitely less than 1/7, which is approximately 0.14, and it basically means that out of 100. This is, we will have one that contains a report about a volcanic eruption, right? So this is more likely we may have one volcanic eruption in 100 days or even less, right? Additionally, it depends on how frequently news websites announce these reports, right? But just considering. Volcanic eruptions themselves, we most likely expect just a few over a year, right, at most, meaning the correct answer to this problem corresponds to the answer choice the 0.01. This is the lowest probability and the event that we're considering is extremely rare. Thank you for watching.

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