Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data55m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically1h 45m
- 4. Probability2h 16m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables2h 33m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables1h 38m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 12m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
- 12. Regression1h 4m
- 13. Chi-Square Tests & Goodness of Fit1h 20m
- 14. ANOVA1h 0m
4. Probability
Basic Concepts of Probability
Problem 4.q.1
Textbook Question
ESP A psychologist tells you that in an ESP (extrasensory perception) experiment, there is a 20% chance of answering a question correctly. What is the probability of answering a question correctly?

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Step 1: Understand the problem. The psychologist states that there is a 20% chance of answering a question correctly. This means the probability of answering a question correctly is given as a percentage.
Step 2: Convert the percentage into a probability. Probabilities are expressed as values between 0 and 1. To convert a percentage to a probability, divide the percentage by 100. For example, 20% becomes 20/100.
Step 3: Write the probability in decimal form. After dividing, express the result as a decimal to represent the probability.
Step 4: Verify the probability value. Ensure that the probability is between 0 and 1, as probabilities cannot exceed this range.
Step 5: Conclude that the probability of answering a question correctly is the decimal value obtained in Step 3.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In this context, a probability of 0.20 indicates that there is a 20% chance of answering a question correctly, meaning that out of 100 attempts, one would expect to answer correctly about 20 times.
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Independent Events
Independent events are those whose outcomes do not affect each other. In the context of the ESP experiment, if each question is answered independently, the probability of answering correctly remains constant at 20% for each question, regardless of previous answers.
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Expected Value
Expected value is a statistical concept that provides a measure of the center of a probability distribution. It is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and summing these products. In this case, if you were to answer multiple questions, the expected number of correct answers can be calculated using the 20% probability.
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