Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data24m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically53m
- 4. Probability1h 29m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables1h 16m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables58m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 5m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
4. Probability
Complements
Problem 4.q.2
Textbook Question
Standard Tests Standard tests, such as the SAT or ACT or MCAT, tend to make extensive use of multiple-choice questions because they are easy to grade using software. If one such multiple choice question has possible correct answers of a, b, c, d, e, what is the probability of a wrong answer if the answer is a random guess?

1
Step 1: Understand the problem. The question asks for the probability of a wrong answer when a random guess is made on a multiple-choice question with 5 possible answers (a, b, c, d, e).
Step 2: Recall the formula for probability. The probability of an event occurring is given by the formula: P(Event) = (Number of favorable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes).
Step 3: Identify the total number of possible outcomes. In this case, there are 5 possible answers (a, b, c, d, e), so the total number of possible outcomes is 5.
Step 4: Determine the number of favorable outcomes for a wrong answer. Since only one answer is correct, the number of wrong answers is 5 - 1 = 4.
Step 5: Calculate the probability of a wrong answer using the formula: P(Wrong Answer) = (Number of wrong answers) / (Total number of possible answers) = 4 / 5.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In the context of multiple-choice questions, it quantifies the chance of selecting a specific answer from a set of possible options. For example, if there are five choices (a, b, c, d, e), the probability of randomly guessing one correct answer is 1 out of 5, or 0.2.
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Complementary Events
Complementary events are pairs of outcomes in probability that cover all possible outcomes of an experiment. In this case, the event of guessing correctly (selecting the right answer) and guessing incorrectly (selecting any of the wrong answers) are complementary. If the probability of a correct answer is 0.2, then the probability of a wrong answer is the complement, calculated as 1 - 0.2, which equals 0.8.
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Random Guessing
Random guessing refers to making a choice without any prior knowledge or strategy, leading to an equal likelihood of selecting any of the available options. In the scenario of a multiple-choice question with five answers, if a student guesses randomly, each answer has an equal probability of being chosen, which is crucial for calculating the overall probabilities of correct and incorrect answers.
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