Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data24m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically53m
- 4. Probability1h 29m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables1h 16m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables58m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 5m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
4. Probability
Complements
Problem 4.3.21a
Textbook Question
Redundancy in Computer Hard Drives The Seagate ST8000NM0055 hard drive has a 1.22% rate of failures in a year (based on data from Backblaze, Inc.). For the following, assume that all hard drives are that Seagate model.
a. If all of your computer data are stored on a hard disk drive with a copy stored on a second hard disk drive, what is the probability that during a year, you can avoid catastrophe with at least one working drive? Express the result with six decimal places.

1
Step 1: Understand the problem. The goal is to calculate the probability of avoiding catastrophe, which means having at least one working drive out of two. This involves using the complement rule and the concept of independent events, as the failure of one drive does not affect the failure of the other.
Step 2: Define the probability of failure for a single drive. The problem states that the failure rate for a single drive is 1.22%, which can be expressed as P(Failure) = 0.0122. The probability of a drive not failing (success) is therefore P(Success) = 1 - P(Failure) = 1 - 0.0122.
Step 3: Calculate the probability of both drives failing. Since the failures are independent, the probability of both drives failing is the product of their individual failure probabilities: P(Both Fail) = P(Failure) Ć P(Failure).
Step 4: Use the complement rule to find the probability of avoiding catastrophe. The complement of both drives failing is at least one drive working. Therefore, P(At Least One Working) = 1 - P(Both Fail).
Step 5: Substitute the values into the formula. Replace P(Failure) with 0.0122 in the equations from Steps 3 and 4 to compute the final probability. Ensure the result is expressed to six decimal places as required.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability of Failure
The probability of failure refers to the likelihood that a specific event, such as a hard drive malfunction, will occur within a given time frame. In this case, the Seagate ST8000NM0055 hard drive has a failure rate of 1.22% per year, which means that there is a 0.0122 probability that any single drive will fail within that year.
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Complement Rule
The complement rule in probability states that the probability of an event occurring is equal to one minus the probability of the event not occurring. For example, if the probability of a hard drive failing is 0.0122, the probability of it not failing is 1 - 0.0122 = 0.9878. This concept is crucial for calculating the likelihood of at least one drive functioning when two drives are in use.
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Complementary Events
Independent Events
Independent events are those whose outcomes do not affect each other. In this scenario, the performance of one hard drive does not influence the performance of another. Therefore, when calculating the probability of at least one drive working, we can multiply the probabilities of each drive's independent outcomes to find the overall probability of success.
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