Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data55m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically1h 45m
- 4. Probability2h 16m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables2h 33m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables1h 38m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 12m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
- 12. Regression1h 4m
- 13. Chi-Square Tests & Goodness of Fit1h 20m
- 14. ANOVA1h 0m
4. Probability
Basic Concepts of Probability
Problem 4.1.19
Textbook Question
In Exercises 13–20, express the indicated degree of likelihood as a probability value between 0 and 1.
Square Peg Sydney Smith wrote in “On the Conduct of the Understanding” that it is impossible to fit a square peg in a round hole.

1
Understand the problem: The task is to express the degree of likelihood of an event (in this case, the impossibility of fitting a square peg into a round hole) as a probability value between 0 and 1. Probability values range from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event).
Recall the definition of probability: Probability is a measure of how likely an event is to occur. An event that is described as 'impossible' has a probability of 0.
Interpret the statement: The phrase 'it is impossible to fit a square peg in a round hole' indicates that the event cannot occur under any circumstances.
Assign the probability value: Based on the interpretation of 'impossible,' assign a probability value of 0 to this event.
Conclude: The probability of fitting a square peg into a round hole, as described in the problem, is 0. This is the final probability value expressed between 0 and 1.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a value between 0 and 1. A probability of 0 indicates that the event cannot happen, while a probability of 1 indicates certainty that the event will occur. Understanding how to calculate and interpret probabilities is essential for analyzing situations involving uncertainty.
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Event
In probability theory, an event is a specific outcome or a set of outcomes from a random experiment. For example, in the context of fitting a square peg into a round hole, the event could be defined as 'the peg fits.' Identifying the event of interest is crucial for determining its probability.
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Sample Space
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. In the case of fitting a square peg into a round hole, the sample space would include all configurations of the peg and hole. Understanding the sample space helps in calculating the probability of specific events by providing a complete context for the possible outcomes.
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