Table of contents
- 1. Intro to Stats and Collecting Data55m
- 2. Describing Data with Tables and Graphs1h 55m
- 3. Describing Data Numerically1h 45m
- 4. Probability2h 16m
- 5. Binomial Distribution & Discrete Random Variables2h 33m
- 6. Normal Distribution and Continuous Random Variables1h 38m
- 7. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Mean1h 3m
- 8. Sampling Distributions & Confidence Intervals: Proportion1h 12m
- 9. Hypothesis Testing for One Sample1h 1m
- 10. Hypothesis Testing for Two Samples2h 8m
- 11. Correlation48m
- 12. Regression1h 4m
- 13. Chi-Square Tests & Goodness of Fit1h 20m
- 14. ANOVA1h 0m
4. Probability
Basic Concepts of Probability
Problem 4.1.41c
Textbook Question
Florida Pick 3 In the Florida Pick 3 lottery, you can place a “straight” bet of $1 by selecting the exact order of three digits between 0 and 9 inclusive (with repetition allowed), so the probability of winning is 1/1000. If the same three numbers are drawn in the same order, you collect $500, so your net profit is $499.
c. Is there much of a difference between the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds?

1
Step 1: Understand the problem. The question asks us to compare the actual odds against winning with the payoff odds. The actual odds against winning are based on the probability of winning, while the payoff odds are based on the net profit relative to the bet amount.
Step 2: Calculate the actual odds against winning. The probability of winning is given as \( \frac{1}{1000} \). The probability of losing is \( 1 - \frac{1}{1000} = \frac{999}{1000} \). The actual odds against winning are the ratio of losing to winning, which is \( \frac{999}{1} \).
Step 3: Calculate the payoff odds. The payoff odds are determined by the net profit relative to the bet amount. The net profit is $499, and the bet amount is $1. Therefore, the payoff odds are \( 499:1 \).
Step 4: Compare the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds. The actual odds against winning are \( 999:1 \), while the payoff odds are \( 499:1 \). To determine the difference, note that the actual odds are significantly higher than the payoff odds.
Step 5: Conclude the analysis. The difference between the actual odds against winning and the payoff odds indicates that the lottery is not a fair game, as the actual odds of losing are much greater than the reward offered for winning.

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Key Concepts
Here are the essential concepts you must grasp in order to answer the question correctly.
Probability
Probability is a measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur, expressed as a number between 0 and 1. In the context of the Florida Pick 3 lottery, the probability of winning with a straight bet is 1/1000, indicating that there is one favorable outcome (matching the exact three digits) out of 1000 possible combinations.
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Odds
Odds represent the ratio of the probability of an event occurring to the probability of it not occurring. In the case of the lottery, the odds against winning can be calculated as the ratio of losing outcomes (999) to winning outcomes (1), which gives odds of 999:1. This contrasts with the payoff odds, which are based on the potential winnings relative to the stake.
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Payoff Odds
Payoff odds refer to the ratio of the net profit to the amount wagered. In the Florida Pick 3 lottery, if you win $500 on a $1 bet, your net profit is $499. The payoff odds can be expressed as 499:1, which indicates the return on investment for a winning bet, and this can differ significantly from the actual odds against winning.
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